THE WEEKLY CASE FILE — Issue #001
Every expert has a blind spot.
History is full of proof.
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CASE OF THE WEEK
In April 2007 Steve Ballmer - CEO of Microsoft, highest-paid executive in America, sat down for an interview and delivered his verdict on the iPhone.
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share."
He wasn't guessing. He was certain.
Two months later the iPhone launched. Within three years it was the best-selling phone on earth. Microsoft's mobile division was eventually shut down entirely - a $7.6 billion write-off.
AUTOPSY FINDING
Ballmer made the most common expert mistake: he evaluated a new technology by the standards of what already existed. He compared the iPhone to existing smartphones and found it lacking. He couldn't evaluate what it would become.
The lesson isn't that Ballmer was stupid. He wasn't. The lesson is that expertise creates blind spots as often as it creates insight.
QUICK VERDICTS
In 1895, Lord Kelvin - President of the Royal Society - declared heavier-than-air flying machines impossible. The Wright Brothers flew eight years later.
In 1996, 12 major publishers rejected Harry Potter. 600 million copies sold. 84 languages.
In 1999, Excite turned down Google for $1 million. Google is now worth $2 trillion. Excite no longer exists.
OPEN CASE
Warren Buffett called Bitcoin "rat poison squared" in 2018 and predicted it would go to zero.
Bitcoin hit $100,000 in 2024.
Case still open. What's your verdict? Reply to this email - I read every response.
Every wrong prediction deserves an autopsy. 🔬
- Prediction Autopsy
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